Influence Of Immigration On Macroeconomic Indicators Of The Republic Of Armenia

Abstract

The article discusses the question of how the main macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Armenia have changed as a result of changes in the geopolitical situation in the region and in connection with the huge influx of labor in the periods from 2022 to 2023. By applying correlation and comparative analysis, during which the extrapolation method and SARMA models were used, the impact of the influx of migrants on indicators such as GDP, CPI, wages and housing prices is assessed. Also, the article presents a literature analysis and compares the results obtained for Armenia with international experience.

Research into trends in GDP, CPI, employment, wages and property prices has shown varying degrees of correlation with migrant inflows. Thus, the influx of migrants had positive but not significant effect on the formation of Armenia's GDP and CPI, but the impact on average wages and housing prices was significant.