Exploring The Impact Of Migration Duration On Expected Urban Income: A Quantile Regression Analysis Of Rural Migrants In Guwahati

Abstract

Rural-to-urban migration plays a critical role in shaping urban economies, particularly in developing countries. Guwahati, the largest city in northeastern India, has witnessed a significant influx of rural migrants in recent decades. This paper investigates the relationship between migration duration and expected urban income among rural migrants in Guwahati, with skill level and formal training status as control variables. While most studies rely on traditional Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression to model income trajectories, this paper employs quantile regression, providing a more nuanced analysis of income disparities across various percentiles. The findings reveal that the duration of migration significantly affects expected income, with varying impacts across different income groups. This heterogeneity, often masked in OLS models, suggests that policymakers need to consider differentiated strategies to address the unique challenges faced by migrants at different income levels. The paper concludes that the relationship between migration duration and income is strongest in the lower-income groups, while formal training enhances income prospects across all levels.