When Progress Masks Prejudice: Interpreting Fertility And Sex Ratio Trends Through Public Data Systems In India

Abstract

India’s sex ratio has long been one of the most skewed in the world, reflecting deep-rooted gender inequality and a widespread preference for sons. The sex ratio at birth (SRB), in particular, continues to remain adverse to women, making it a key indicator of gender bias. While the sex ratio has been declining for decades, the most recent data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5, 2019–21) introduces a surprising trend: for the first time, India has reported more women than men, with a sex ratio of 1020 females per 1000 males.

This apparent demographic turnaround has been widely interpreted as a sign of progress and as evidence that the status of women in India is improving. Alongside this, NFHS-5 also reports a decline in India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) to below the replacement level of 2.0. These two developments—rising sex ratio and declining fertility—have prompted optimistic conclusions about gender equality in the country.